Let's take a look at what hard data we have for previous releases (by the way, all the dates are ordered as year-month-day, to make it extra hard to understand them, no matter what part of the world you are in):
| Announced | Testing start | delta | Pre-release patch [n+1].0.0 | delta | Pre-release event (shattering/scourge plague, etc) | delta | Release | |
| BC | 2005-10-28 | 2006-08-15 | 112 | 2006-12-05 | 35 | 2007-01-09 | 7 | 2007-01-16 |
| WotLK | 2007-08-03 | 2008-05-20 | 147 | 2008-10-14 | 9 | 2008-10-23 | 21 | 2008-11-13 |
| Cataclysm | 2009-08-21 | 2010-05-03 | 162 | 2010-10-12 | 42 | 2010-11-23 | 14 | 2010-12-07 |
| MoP | 2011-10-21 | 2012-03-20 | 161 | 2012-08-28 | 20 | 2012-09-17 | 8 | 2012-09-25 |
| WoD | 2013-11-08 | 2014-06-04 | 133 | 2014-10-15 | 0 | 2014-10-15 | 29 | 2014-11-13 |
First, let me point out that I made up the testing start date for BC. I could only find that it started in mid August 2006. All the other dates are exact.
So what is this table saying? Well, I'm calculating how long it was after testing started for each release, until certain landmarks along the way. The first such landmark is when the pre-release patch appeared. This is typically the patch with the last two numbers 0.0, and it's usually when new mechanics appear, to get players used to them before the release. For instance, talent tree changes, stat re-balancing and so on. It also usually contains all the artifacts needed for the new release.
The second landmark is when the pre-release event starts, that draws us into the new release. For instance, with the Cataclysm, the 4.0.0 (or 4.0.1) patch appeared on October 12, 2010 resetting everybody's talent trees and spell bars and glyphs. But there was nothing new happening in Azeroth, save a few tremors from time to time. Then came patch 4.03a on 23 November 2010, bringing the events of the Shattering: the old world was changed forever as Deathwing erupted from the fiery elemental plane of Deepholm, bursting through the crust of the planet and destroying everything he found in his path. However, all this was content available to everyone who had paid for WotLK. The new Cataclysm content became available (to everyone who had paid for it) on 7 Dec 2010, and we all rushed off to Uldum, Mount Hyjal, Vash'jir and so on.
So for each of these landmarks I calculated how many days that stage lasted (the delta column). So there were 162 days between when closed Alpha testing began and when 4.0.1 released. then a further 42 days before the Shattering, and another 14 days until the new zones opened and we could start levelling from 80-85.
It doesn't take much work to calculate the averages for each of these stages: on average, it takes 143 days of testing before the x.0.0 patch; an average of 21 days between that patch and the start of the pre-release event; and an average of 16 days after that until the release day, for a total of 180 days on average from when testing begins until product release. Let's plug these into the table and see what we get:
| Announced | Testing start | delta | Pre-release patch [n+1].0.0 | delta | Pre-release event (shattering/scourge plague, etc) | delta | Release | |
| BC | 2005-10-28 | 2006-08-15 | 112 | 2006-12-05 | 35 | 2007-01-09 | 7 | 2007-01-16 |
| WotLK | 2007-08-03 | 2008-05-20 | 147 | 2008-10-14 | 9 | 2008-10-23 | 21 | 2008-11-13 |
| Cataclysm | 2009-08-21 | 2010-05-03 | 162 | 2010-10-12 | 42 | 2010-11-23 | 14 | 2010-12-07 |
| MoP | 2011-10-21 | 2012-03-20 | 161 | 2012-08-28 | 20 | 2012-09-17 | 8 | 2012-09-25 |
| WoD | 2013-11-08 | 2014-06-04 | 133 | 2014-10-15 | 0 | 2014-10-15 | 29 | 2014-11-13 |
| Legion | 2015-08-06 | 2015-11-20 | 143 | 2016-04-11 | 21.2 | 2016-05-02 | 15.8 | 2016-05-18 |
So there you have it.
These predictions in red are to be taken with a pinch of salt. That average of 180 days? It has a standard deviation of 25 days. In other words, we shouldn't be surprised if the release date is a month before or after the 18th of May.
What this tells me is that I am still comfortable with my original prediction back in August that Legion's release date is planned to tie in with the release date of the Warcraft movie, which is currently 10 June in the US.
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